Cyril Ramaphosa's long game is finally coming to fruition

Exactly eight years ago, Cyril Ramaphosa was elected to office in the National Assembly. To watch that show now It should be reminded how uncertain things were in South Africa at that time.

When the then Chief Justice, Mogoeng Mogoeng, announced the results of the election, Ramaphosa looked frozen for a few seconds. Then, as soon as he realized this, he broke into a wide smile.

It was not clear then how much power he actually had.

Jacob Zuma led the ANC for 10 years. His supporters held top strategic positions. Ace Magashule was the party's general secretary. Tony Yengeni's tweet was taken seriously as an indication of the feelings in the party about the scale of the threat to Ramaphosa.

Government institutions like SARS and the National Prosecuting Authority were completely dismantled hollow.

The electricity sector was in a mess, to such an extent that Ramaphosa already had to intervene as Deputy Chairman to appoint a new board at Eskom, in order to reassure the market.

His grip on the ANC seemed tenuous, and he appeared to delay implementing large-scale reforms while playing what supporters called “the long game”.

Despite leading the party to victory in 2019, when the Covid pandemic hit in 2020, there were many complaints that it felt like he was not in charge.

Conspiracy theories abound that Dr. Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, as Minister of Cooperative Governance, was taking power away from her in order to eliminate cigarette-smoking in South Africa, or to help the illegal tobacco industry (pick your conspiracy theory).

Even less than four years ago, in December 2022, it was not entirely certain that Ramaphosa would win another term as ANC leader.

One time, for a few hours after the so-and-so incident, it wasn't even clear Will he run for a second term?

take charge

His 2026 State of the Nation address last Thursday, and the manner in which he delivered it, showed how much has changed.

Zuma has left the ANC, taking with him his strongest and most vocal supporters.

The current ANC secretary-general, Fikile Mbalula, rejects any talk of succession in the party and makes it clear that he supports Ramaphosa in all circumstances.

The MK party and the EFF have been plagued by infighting, have lost senior leaders and appear unable to provide a strong and thoughtful opposition.

Even the DA, which has provided a more concerted and sustained opposition to the ANC over the past 30 years, is now part of Ramaphosa's choir.

Read more: A goldmine for (almost) everyone – Ramaphosa's masterclass in political crowd-pleasing

Power may extend throughout the presidency, but it usually comes with a heavy tax: a growing collection of enemies and grievances.

That is not the case here, where Ramaphosa is seeing his popularity rising for two key reasons.

The first is that the economy is growing.

The second is that more people are beginning to realize how difficult it will be to follow him, and how unclear the post-Ramaphosa picture is.

it is rare. It is unusual for leaders to be more popular in their second term than in their first (although in Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's second term is famous for being the moment when he actually acted and reformed the country).

All this suggests that Ramaphosa's “long game” strategy was right.

growing successes

While it is obviously true that he is now in a much more powerful position than before, it is only a true victory if the state improves.

Here, although there have been significant successes, the picture is more mixed, largely due to the weakness of the state.

Much of this weakness, perhaps most of it, was a direct result of Zuma's rule, which Ramaphosa has called “nine wasted years”.

But some of this must also be due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although it is easy to criticize after the fact, Ramaphosa's government's decision to impose a strict and prolonged closure still has many consequences.

Certainly, the rise of the illicit tobacco industry is a direct result of the complete ban imposed on these products during this period. Although Ramaphosa may not have been the main driver, as president he allowed this to happen.

On the other hand, some institutions, and SARS in particular, have been thoroughly reformed.

And, breaking new ground, the National Director of Public Prosecutions has gone on his own terms and gone on record saying that his decisions were never compromised by political interference.

Ramaphosa is responsible for these positive developments.

Credit for almost all the success of Operation Vulindlela should also be given to him.

Many of the achievements he listed last week, such as the end of load shedding, improvements in Transnet and the logistics sector and positive changes in the public rail system, are largely due to this initiative.

Although Ramaphosa may not play a direct role there, he has provided political cover to ensure that it succeeds.

Furthermore, although his decisions to initiate investigations on various issues can be legitimately criticized, the longer term may prove that he was right.

The inquiry into the SAPS will potentially help them not only to redesign real leadership in the police, but also to shed light on how leaders are appointed. He may also be able to change the structure of the SAPS to ensure that its members are appropriately depoliticized.

'Cyril's Economy'

However, it has little effect on many people.

The phrase “Cyril's economy”, when heard in workplaces, taxis and braais, is no compliment. This is a recognition of how difficult life is.

And municipal councils, many of them plagued by fragmented politics, in which the ANC is central, appear almost impossible.

This means Joburg's water crisis, which threatens so many people, may take a long time to resolve.

And a promise to bring in the SANDF to tackle crime. hollow. The SANDF is led by a person who uses government money Support soldiers accused of murder A Hawks investigator and is spending millions of rands on Defense Forces Day in his hometown, while his soldiers do not always have enough money for food.

excellent game

Politically, there is no doubt that Ramaphosa has played a brilliant game.

she is in charge.

Our recent history is littered with the political corpses of Magashule, Dlamini Zuma, Yengeni and many others who opposed Ramaphosa.

The man who posed the greatest threat, Zuma, is no longer a threat at the national level (even though MK may soon find himself leading the provincial government in KwaZulu-Natal).

It is also true that many reforms at the top level of the government and in our economy have been positive.

Slowly, very slowly, there are signs that it will soon affect millions of people living in poverty.

Ramaphosa has won the long battle. However, the real test is whether our economy can grow and create jobs. Given the nature of our society and its racial inequality, this is a very difficult question.

But for millions of people it is the only game that matters. DM