- The Bureau of Economic Research has developed three new economic scenarios for South Africa.
- The most positive so-called “fish eagle” scenario emerges 3% growth, 3% budget deficit, and 3% inflation within three years, which would create a minimum of 2.4 million more jobs by 2030 than the economy produced in 2025.
- The important thing is that there is no need for a new plan, just better and faster implementation of existing initiatives.
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South Africa faces important choices that will determine whether the economy will fall to 0.5% growth or grow to 3% by 2030. In a best-case scenario, the latter would create 24 lakh new jobs within five years.
The important thing is that to achieve this progress, the country does not need new schemes but better implementation.
This is the conclusion of an ambitious new scenario plan by the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) at Stellenbosch University.
The report released Thursday morning concludes:
If South Africa doubles down on catalytic reforms it could grow by at least 3% by 2030 compared to 2025 and create 2.4 million more jobs, but it will need to act with renewed urgency if it is to translate growing confidence into an economic recovery.
According to BER researchers, SA's growth prospects have increased as structural reforms begin to take hold. The biggest concern is that investment in fixed assets is not matching the better sentiments.
Investment in infrastructure, buildings and technology is an important sign of economic transformation and means South Africa will be able to produce more in the future.
But fixed investment declined by 2.5% in 2025, its second annual decline, although, on a quarterly basis, there was growth in the third and fourth quarters.
The BER report said SA is also highly vulnerable to external economic shocks, like the current war in the Middle East.
“As a small, open economy, South Africa cannot control the external environment, but must focus on building resilience and tackling its internal challenges by launching a series of urgent domestic interventions to reinvigorate the economy.”
However, Roy Haveman, head of BER's Impumelelo Growth Lab, says:
The binding constraint is domestic: whether the country can build up its capital reserves, restore the rule of law, maintain credible institutions and connect to the world economy through a cost-effective national logistics system that promotes exports.
The BER produced different scenarios for SA's outlook around Hadeda (in which the status quo is maintained), Marabou Stork (in which South Africa is moving towards becoming a failed state), and African Fish Eagle (in which growth increases to 3% or more).
“In the end, the difference between Hadeda, Marabou and Fish Eagle is SA's ability to carry out its reforms,” explains Haveman.
Hadeda scenario: disturbances continue in SA
The hedada has been described as “a noisy, low-flying bird – just like the South African econome”.
In this baseline scenario, SA grows, “but the deep constraints that trapped it in a low-growth trap have not been resolved, and the economy continues to spiral downward.”
In the baseline scenario, growth is stuck below 2%.
It believes that the Government of National Unity (GNU) will remain united but will not strengthen service delivery in a meaningful way.
Progressive progress is being made, but implementation is uneven and slow; Criminal-justice reform moves slowly; And the broader state machinery continues to struggle, hampering development.
Under this baseline scenario, growth will remain below 2%. In 2025, the economy is projected to grow by 1.1% – the first time in three years that growth has exceeded 1%, but still far from the National Growth Plan's 3% target.
“The bottom line: This is a scenario of missed opportunities, stagnation without progress and increasing long-term risks.”
BER considers the Hadeda scenario as the current baseline.
Marabou scenario: revisiting the lost decade 2009–2019
The marabou stork, also known as the “undertaker bird”, represents a scenario of state capture 2.0, characterized by crime and corruption, as happened in the so-called lost decade under former president Jacob Zuma.
“The central trigger is a political realignment that results in the GNU becoming more populist and failing to support the existing reform agenda. Criminal-justice reform stalls, confidence in the rule of law deteriorates, and the investment-led recovery that could have followed better enforcement has yet to materialize.”
Higher interest rates would reverse fiscal consolidation and send government debt climbing to “unsustainable levels”.
The Marabou scenario implies a return to state capture.
The growth rate will slow back to 0.5% with a huge increase in poverty and unemployment.
“The bottom line: This scenario represents a political-economic breakdown with permanent damage to prosperity and social cohesion.”
News24's latest On the Record SummitBusiness Leadership SA CEO Busisiwe Mavuso also warned of a return to state capture, especially if the wrong person becomes ANC leader. Signs of backlash on structural reform are already present – for example, Eskom is resisting opening up the transmission grid, which is seen as a prerequisite for freeing up the energy market.
Read | On the record This economy is stupid – but let's be practical
The marabou scenario is the worst-case scenario for SA.
African Fish Eagle Scenario: Sustained economic growth of 3% or more
BER researchers emphasize that the ideal scenario would require better implementation, not new plans.
“This high-road scenario can be distilled into a catchy mantra: 3x3x3 in 3. It describes what South Africa might look like if it could achieve 3% growth, 3% budget deficit and 3% inflation within 3 years. At a minimum, this would mean the creation of 2.4 million more jobs by 2030 than the economy produced in 2025. This brings the total under the Hadeda scenario to about 1 million. There are more jobs.”
Best case doesn't mean ideal case, just better execution.
In the Eagle scenario: “South Africa successfully uses the current political window to fix fundamentals and rapidly deliver its reform agenda, supported by a step change in execution driven by Operation Vulindlela and the normalization of public-private partnerships.”
Using a bird analogy, it notes: “Fish Eagle thrives not because conditions are right, but because cyclical recovery is transformed into sustainable lift through sustained investment, institutional reform and capital deepening.
“The Ninety Points: This scenario fundamentally changes SA's prospects. Rising growth and employment, falling poverty, and political stability reinforce each other in a virtuous cycle that makes the country an attractive investment destination once again.”
3x3x3 in 3 years is the ideal outcome for SA's economy.
To help promote confidence and growth, BER has identified ten catalytic interventions:
10 intervention is required
1. Develop a roadmap for reform of the entire criminal justice system based on the recommendations and revelations of the Zondo and Madlanga Commissions.
2. Make the National Prosecuting Authority institutionally independent from the Department of Justice and Constitutional Development and free from political interference.
3. Support the SA Revenue Service's major effort to tackle the illicit economy.
4. Enact the Public Sector Amendment Bill to depoliticize the appointment of senior public officials, strengthen accountability, and attract private sector skills to the state.
5. Modernize administrative systems and introduce a tacit-consent rule for all licensing arrangements, whereby approval is deemed to have been granted if the state has not responded after six months.
6. Pursue big-budget, catalytic, inter-departmental projects, such as fixing the Lebombo border crossing, attracting private sector skills and funding.
7. Make cost-effectiveness and greater transparency a priority of procurement law.
8. Target savings of R100 billion per year by, among other things, involving state agencies and institutions in departmental budget votes and subjecting them to spending limits.
9. Furthermore, sector education and training authorities should be abolished, the Road Accident Fund should be transferred to a private insurance model and the Unemployment Insurance Fund should be prevented from pursuing expensive new ventures unrelated to its core mandate.
10. Appoint strong, independent and accountable boards of state-owned enterprises and move from integrated monopolies to models that promote competition and decentralization.
The BER's baseline forecast is that economic growth will average only 1.7% over the long term, but “it strongly believes that growth of 3% is possible if the structural reforms being undertaken by the OV are accelerated, deepened and supported.”
“At the same time, the obstacles that companies and citizens report daily must be addressed: endemic crime and corruption, energy and water insecurity, crumbling logistics and failing municipalities.”
According to BER, SA is at a critical moment that will determine its economic trajectory.