By mid-2026, the question facing retirement funds is no longer just whether the portfolio can grow over time. The point is whether members are protected when markets change and they need to exit the fund.
The South African Reserve Bank's latest rate hike is a reminder of how quickly the investment backdrop can change. Changes in inflation expectations, a boom in the Middle East, or a change in the interest rate outlook can cause market shifts before trustees have time to adjust their assumptions.
“I expect volatility; that's the ultimate thing,” says Marvin Nair, investment solutions executive at Old Mutual Corporate. “But the issue is not simply whether the market goes up or down. The issue is whether retirement savings are designed to keep members exposed to long-term growth while helping to protect them from market shocks that could hurt results when accessing retirement savings.”
For trustees and asset advisors, this is becoming a more important test: whether a portfolio is not only capable of delivering long-term growth, but also salvageable when market shocks impact member results.
Keep up with the latest headlines WhatsApp | Linkedin
The debate is no longer just about which portfolios can meet long-term return goals. It's about whether those portfolios can manage the path of returns that members actually experience when they retire, switch, preserve, transfer or start receiving income.
Why is 2026 testing the portfolio design?
The comparison with 2025 is useful. Last year's unusually strong market returns showed why…