South Africa this week officially marks 365 days without load shedding. Eskom and the Minister of Electricity and Energy, Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, say there are no plans for winter loadshedding. However, the figures show a contraction in power generation and consumption.
Eskom's energy availability factor (EAF) declined month-on-month to an average of 59.9% in April 2026, from 66.8% in March.
This reduction is mostly seasonal, reflecting increased maintenance activity before the peak winter period.
Unplanned outages increased by more than 2,000 MW in April, while planned maintenance increased by 1,217 MW.
Overall, maintenance increased by 3,227 MW during the month, leading to a decline in EAF.
Looking ahead, Eskom's Winter Outlook (released on 22 April for the period 1 April to 31 August 2026) points to a more stable supply outlook.
Eskom expects no loadshedding over this period, supported by an estimated 6,000 MW of surplus capacity during winter peak demand.
difference between demand and supply
Nevertheless, figures released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) highlight a continued contraction in both electricity production and consumption in South Africa.
Seasonally adjusted real electricity generation declined by 6.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in March 2026, reflecting a continuing downward trend from June 2025.
On a maternal basis, output declined further by 1.6%, underpinning a weak trajectory.
In the first quarter of 2026, power generation was 5.6% lower than the same period in 2025.
From 2024 onwards, South Africa has seen the closure of some energy-intensive firms, including Bridgestone, Nissan (the Rosslyn plant was sold to Cherry) and several automotive component manufacturers.
In the mining sector, the ferroalloys industry has closed smelters due to uncompetitively high electricity prices.
When assessing the data, there is a clear and persistent gap between electricity demand and generation capacity, which aligns with the ongoing decline in electricity production.
Peak demand is declining from 2025, reducing the need for production.
At the same time, improvements in Eskom's plant performance have increased available capacity, widening the gap between supply capacity and actual demand.
This indicates a structural change in the economy, which is leading to lower electricity consumption.
Part of this adjustment is likely to be due to the impact of higher tariffs encouraging more efficient consumption of embedded generation, particularly solar, in place of grid-supplied electricity.
under pressure
Furthermore, energy-intensive industry sectors remain under pressure.
Ferroalloy smelters continue to face high and uncompetitive power costs (despite negotiated price agreements (NPAs) for companies such as ferrochrome producers Glencore and Samancor), while the closure of the South32 aluminum smelter in Mozal, Mozambique due to high power prices, points to weak industrial demand.
Overall, these dynamics translate into lower power demand, subsequent lower production, and a growing surplus in generation capacity.
Net electricity exports declined to near zero in March, largely reflecting the closure of the Mozelle smelter, a major recipient of electricity exports from Eskom.
This sharp reduction in export volumes is expected to put additional pressure on Eskom's revenue base alongside other headwinds, including localized load-shedding to address illegal connections, electricity theft and infrastructure vandalism, as well as rising municipal arrears, now estimated at R111bn.
softening of demand
There are varying trends in the power sector that complicate the overall narrative.
On the one hand, improvements in generation capacity, particularly in Eskom's plant performance and reliability, are clear and well established.
Despite the seasonal decline in EAF in April due to increased maintenance (and breakdowns) before winter, performance has improved significantly compared to the previous year.
This has translated into a sustained period without load shedding, now approaching a full year.
On the other hand, this better supply situation is being offset by weak demand for electricity. In our assessment, this reflects two key factors.
First, there is a structural, legacy impact from a period of intense loadshedding through 2023. Households and companies have increasingly invested in alternative energy sources, particularly rooftop solar power.
South African Reserve Bank projections show installed rooftop solar capacity rising from about 3GW to about 7-8 GW in 2022.
This expansion has structurally reduced reliance on grid-supplied electricity, leading to a steady decline in electricity generation and behind-the-meter consumption.
Second, persistently high electricity tariffs above inflation have further reduced demand.
The increased cost of electricity has put pressure on energy-intensive users, with some industries reducing production or ceasing operations altogether.
This has strengthened the trend of decline in electricity consumption.
Overall, while supply capacity and reliability have improved significantly, demand has moderated, resulting in lower power generation and increased generation capacity surplus.
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