South Africa is in the midst of its most significant anti-immigrant mobilization in years.
emergence of march and march movementCalls for mass deportation of undocumented immigrants 30 June 2026is increasing anti-immigrant violenceand this repatriation The increasing number of foreign nationals has brought immigration to the center of national debate by many African governments.
Anti-immigrant protest movement argues it is responding to growing backlash Unemploymentdeteriorate public services and increasing insecurity.
The question is not whether these complaints have merit or not. They do. It's whether immigrants are really responsible for them.
This article is derived from research Southern Center for Inequality Studies At the University of the Witwatersrand. It examines its drivers and consequences Inequality. It focuses on the world of Workpublic Expenditure, Production and ownershiptechnological change and innovationand effects of Climate change.
Our research provides important context for understanding the economic and social conditions in which the explosion of anti-immigrant sentiment has occurred – and its underlying causes. Immigration is not irrelevant to the diverse and overlapping crises facing South Africans. But this is not their primary reason.
Unemployment and informality
Few issues reflect this more clearly than employment.
South Africa is one of the highest unemployment rate In this world. More than four out of every ten working-age adults who want work cannot find it (this includes discouraged work seekers). The scale of this crisis clearly creates pressure Identify the cause and demand action.
Many South Africans have concluded that immigrants are taking jobs away from local workers. Our Analysis Opinion data shows that more than 70% of South Africans believe that immigrants take jobs away from people born in the country.
These ideas help explain the growing support for anti-immigrant mobilization. But public perceptions do not always match reality.
administrative tax data It turns out that the share of foreign nationals in formal employment in South Africa is very low. Our researchers found that less than 4% of formal jobs are held by foreigners. This share has remained largely unchanged for more than a decade.
The picture is different informal economyWhere foreign-born workers represent a limited but large 20% share of participants.
related research By scholars at the Center for Southern Inequality Studies in collaboration with the International Organization for Informal Workers streetnet and Women in Informal Employment: Globalization and Organizing (Viego) found in South Africa that as the informal sector expanded amid rising unemployment, competition increased. This has made livelihoods more uncertain and sustaining earnings more difficult.
Competition is particularly rife between spaza shop owners (informal neighborhood grocery stores) and street traders, who buy goods in the formal sector and resell them at small profit margins. Foreign-owned spaza stores tend to be large and mass operated – similar to the role of wholesalers. This enables them to offer a wide range of products at low prices.
Policy changes will be required to create a supportive environment for informal operators. They may include: access to start-up capital, wholesale sourcing of goods, safe access to public space, investment in affordable public infrastructure and services, and reducing harassment by municipal officials.
despite recent government schemes To revitalize township (historically segregated poor neighbourhoods) and rural economies, South Africa's economic policy focuses on the formal sector.
The frustration felt by South Africans is therefore understandable. But South Africa's unemployment crisis is too large to be explained by immigration alone.
For example, our Research The suggestion is that if all foreigners' jobs were somehow handed over to unemployed South Africans the unemployment rate would fall by only six percentage points – from 43.6% to 37.6%.
This is a relatively modest decline given the scale of South Africa's unemployment crisis. This highlights that the labor market overall is not dominated by foreigners, even though some sectors and locations have higher numbers of immigrant workers.
Yet, it is not only unrealistic to expect that jobs can be swapped one-for-one between immigrants and South Africans. It may even lead to overall job losses for South Africans due to the decline in entrepreneurship, investment and skills brought by foreigners.
This was the conclusion of a world bank report Which found that one immigrant worker actually creates about two jobs for local people.
The economic contribution of immigrants may also help explain why attitudes towards immigration vary across South Africa. Scholars at the Southern Center for Inequality Studies found Residents of more deprived municipalities were sometimes more supportive of cross-border movement than those living in better-resourced areas. One possible explanation is that direct contact with migrants helped challenge stereotypes and make their economic contributions more visible.
If immigration is not the primary cause of unemployment, why is this perception so strong?
Part of the answer lies in the economic pressures experienced by ordinary families.
Financial pressure facing families
facing the houses rising costs Connected to food, transportation, electricity and other essentials. These pressures come on top of worsening public services. Power cuts, unreliable public transport, overcrowded schools and long waits at public clinics have become part of everyday life for many South Africans. This has reinforced the perception that the standard of living is continuously declining.
Our Research Confirms that reduced government borrowing, primarily through lower budgets and greater revenue collection, has been squeezing public services for a decade. This has contributed to poor teacher-learner ratios, long waiting periods at public health facilities and increasing backlogs in courts.
These pressures are likely to intensify in the coming years for a number of reasons.
First, climate change places Disproportionate burden on vulnerable groups such as women, particularly due to its impact on care work, livelihoods and access to essential resources.
Our recent research It also finds that the green transition will create highly unequal labor market impacts across South Africa. Some communities will face significant job losses and economic disruption that could lead to increased social and political tensions.
Second, the limits of South Africa's social security are becoming more clear. Social grants have become a lifeline for millions of families and play a vital role in preventing poverty. But they can't opt out good jobs and economic opportunities. Our research on social Security Shows that people want more than just survival. They want meaningful work, respect, freedom, and opportunities to build better lives.
The challenge facing South Africa is not only to reduce poverty, but also expand opportunity. South Africa's economic prosperity is largely linked to trade and investment with the rest of Africa. Anti-immigrant politics can yield short-term political gains. But they risk damaging the relationships and openness on which South Africa's long-term development depends.
a warning sign
The rise of anti-immigrant sentiment is a warning sign. This reflects real frustration with the economic conditions and diminishing opportunities facing the average South African. It would be a mistake to ignore those disappointments.
But this would also be blaming migrants for a crisis they did not cause. Economic hardship may help explain anti-immigrant sentiment, but it cannot justify directing hostility or violence toward those whose rights and dignity deserve equal protection.
South Africa's challenges demand better policy, not scapegoating, prejudice or violence against migrants.
The statement on which this article is based was signed by the following Southern Center for Inequality Studies research staff: Comfort Molefinyana, David Francis, Gessie Karuri-Sebina, Glenn Robbins, Gontse Mabaso, Imran Valodia, Julia Taylor, Khanimamba Masuluke, Khumisho Mogueren, Niall Reddy, Nirvana Pillay, Nishal Robb, Rahul Gandhi, Rashad Mohammed Amra, Reyna Patni, Rozina Das, Ujithra Ponnaiah.