November trading growth in South African shopping centers outpaced December's performance, according to the latest Clr Shopping Center Index covering the last quarter and the entire year to 2025.
“This is the second year in a row that November's growth performance has outstripped December's growth performance, with growth off a high base since 2024. Moreover, the high trade density gap relative to December has narrowed significantly since 2023,” says Belinda Clur, managing director of Clur International, which produces the index.
The index is derived from Clr Collective, South Africa's early-warning performance, strategy, analysis and benchmarking platform, built specifically for shopping centers to optimize returns.
This supported industry standard and economic indicators covers more than 5.4 million square meters of space in listed and unlisted property funds in South Africa and Namibia.
Clr says strong growth over the November festive season was one aspect of the 2025 retail property business story.
“It also speaks to the overall resilience, business momentum built over the year with declines over the past two months, the ongoing strength of the Western Cape and consumer appetite for rawness, grit and creativity.”
Clur says consumer culture is becoming more sophisticated while becoming simpler, and being literate in it is key to guiding successful shopping centers and business strategies of the future.
She says November shoppers prefer super regional and regional centres, with pressured consumers opting for destination shopping targeting special offers in the Black Friday month.
In contrast, December indicated more subdued festive spending and strong convenience shopping growth.
“While the combined festive season of November and December saw positive trade density growth across the board, this fell short of 2024 and was overtaken by the expansionary growth shown in the rest of the year (January to October). This highlights the deceleration in retail growth from November 2025 onwards.”
it is in numbers
The November '25 National Clr Index for all centers closed with an annual trade density y/y% increase of 4.4%, with the full year Clr Index underperforming by -0.6% and the November '25 CPI underperforming by 0.9%.
The highest y/y% growth was shown by ultra-regional centers at 6.2% and regional centers at 4.0%. Annual trade density y/y% growth in the December index was 2.7%, underperforming the full year Clr index by -2.2% and the December 2025 CPI by -0.9%.
The highest y/y % growth was shown by community and small centers at 4.1% and small regional centers at 3.5%.
“It was also significant that Gauteng, the most populous province, was the top performer in November in trade density growth of the three major provinces, overtaking the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. The Western Cape remains in the top spot, but for November it was behind Gauteng,” says Cllr.
The y/y% annual trade density growth for November in Gauteng was 5.3%, followed by 4.9% in the Western Cape and 3.5% in KwaZulu-Natal. The Western Cape was the top performer for the combined November and December season, with y/y% annual trade density growth of 4.0%. Gauteng had the second highest year-on-year growth rate at 3.8%. KwaZulu-Natal showed positive year-on-year growth of 2.7%.
For the full year the Western Cape experienced annual trade density growth of 5.7%, which was 2.5% above the 2025 CPI. Gauteng was next with an increase of 5.2%. KwaZulu-Natal had a positive year-on-year growth of 3.6%, showing the highest growth expansion of 1.6% compared to June'25.
This meant an annual trade density of R49,682/sq.m in the Western Cape, 44,858/sq.m in KwaZulu Natal and R41,214/sq.m in Gauteng for the full year 2025.
For November and December combined, the Western Cape's annual trade density was R66,072/sq.m, KwaZulu-Natal's R62,067/sq.m and Gauteng's R54,926/sq.m.
For November, the Western Cape's annual trade density was R56,370/sq.m, KwaZulu-Natal's R50,909/sq.m and Gauteng's R47,823/sq.m. December results showed R75,633/sq.m in the Western Cape, R73,329/sq.m in KwaZulu-Natal and R62,040/sq.m in Gauteng.
The combined national Clr index for all centers closed for November and December with an annual trade density y/y% increase of 3.4%, underperforming the full year Clr index by -1.6% and a decline of -2.0% compared to 2024. The highest y/y% growth was shown by super-regional centers at 4.2%, followed by community and smaller centers at 3.6%.
Annual trade density y/y% growth in the all centers index for the remainder of the year (January to October) was 5.5%, outperforming the Clr index for the full year by 0.5% and growing 3.0% relative to 2024. The highest y/y% growth was achieved by community and small centers at 6.2%, followed by regional centers at 6.1%.
The full 2025 National Clear Index for all centers showed annual trade density y/y% growth of 5.0%, outperforming the 2025 CPI by 1.8%. The highest year-on-year increase was 5.5% in community and small centres, followed by 5.3% in regional centres. Super-regional centers had the largest expansion at 1.0% compared to June 2025, followed by regional centers at 0.3%. Only community and small centers declined -0.1% compared to June 25, with the all center index rising 0.4% over the same period.
Clr says the two sizes of super-regional centers and community and smaller centers continue to lead peak trade density volume levels.
All Centers Index for the full 2025, annual business density for the year was R42,780/sq.m, led by super-regional centers at R52,524/sq.m and community and small centers at R48,441/sq.m. The index for all centers combined, annual business density for the festive season was R57,440/sq.m, with super-regional centers at the top with R74,041/sq.m, followed by community and small centers at R60,298/sq.m.
For the full year 2025, the Western Cape's annual trade density stood at R49,682/sq.m, KwaZulu Natal ranked at R44,858/sq.m., and Gauteng's was R41,214/sq.m.
On the rental front, Cler says the full year 2025 national Cler index for the base rent to sales ratio closed at 6.6%, indicating continued stable and controlled market risk through mid-2024.
The December '25 national rent index for base rents for all centers showed a year-over-year increase of 5.4%, outperforming the December '25 CPI by 1.8%. The highest y/y% growth was shown by smaller regional centers at 5.7%, followed by super-regional centers at 5.4%.
The Western Cape led the three major provinces, with y/y% base rental growth of 6.7%, outperforming the 2025 CPI by 3.1%. KwaZulu-Natal had the second highest annual growth rate at 5.2%. Gauteng showed positive growth of 4.9% year-on-year.
In rand terms, the national index closed at R245.28/sq.m. The highest rents were shown by super-regional centers at R330.74/sq.m and by regional centers at R240.09/sq.m. The Western Cape's base rental level was R271.36/sq.m, while KwaZulu-Natal's base rental level was R253.54/sq.m. Gauteng came in at R244.15/sq.m.
A new consumer connection point
Clar says that against a backdrop of consumer pressure and retail decline, the trust economy, often based on a shift away from a superficial attention economy, has evolved.
“This is now signaling a new consumer connection point. Rawness, grit and creativity are the new core values that resonate with consumers, who seem to be in rebellion against overly sophisticated, characterless and easily mass-produced AI outputs.
“These values, as a combined consumer culture concept, reflect people rejecting slick perfection and being attracted to tactile unfiltered, more natural imperfect experiences that are less staged. They are also related to showing things as they are, without layers, supporting honesty, character and emotional clarity. Consumers want sensory engagement and stimulation through texture, art, engaging visuals, engaging experiences and meaningful community activities.”
Clar says this is evidenced by consumers' growing preference for minimally processed, natural food products, as well as distressed clothing, unfinished materials and visible craftsmanship in design and fashion.
“The rise of unfiltered social media content and explicit media visuals supports this, as does the emphasis on wellness and lifestyle over raw emotions, self-expression, mental health, digital detox and ongoing body maintenance changes on display.
“Strongly linked to this is the need to protect one's unique voice and perspective, as well as personal reinvention. This is evidenced through a growing emphasis on storytelling, adult learners, and travel interest.”
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