As AI-assisted software development is reshaping South Africa's technology workforce, there is growing concern that entry-level developers are at risk of missing out on critical opportunities needed to build fundamental engineering skills – a shift that could harm the country's tech sector if not addressed.
According to Lisa Jasper, head of talent acquisition at Dereal, the integration of AI into software development is not just another industry trend, but a fundamental restructuring of how technology is built, who builds it, and how engineering talent is developed.
“For South Africa, a nation that has positioned technology as a key engine for economic growth and social mobility, it is essential to understand and respond to this shift,” he said. “Unlike previous disruptions, this change demands a strategic, multi-stakeholder response.”
The speed of change is astonishing. According to GitHub's 2023 survey, 92% of developers in the United States now use AI coding tools either at work or in personal projects, with 70% of them reporting significant benefits in accelerating learning and increasing productivity. McKinsey's 2023 research shows that software engineering is among the tasks most exposed to automation, with coding tasks having potential productivity gains of 20% to 45%. Although these figures originate from global studies, they have direct implications for markets like South Africa, where technology services are increasingly integrated into global delivery models.
The stakes are high at the local level. South Africa's ICT sector contributes approximately 8% to national GDP and employs hundreds of thousands of workers directly and indirectly. For many people – particularly graduates from historically disadvantaged backgrounds – the technology industry has been an important route into the middle class. Youth unemployment remains above 45%, and the tech sector has been one of the few consistent sources of quality employment for young graduates. South Africa's National Digital and Future Skills Strategy identifies digital skills as a national priority, but Jasper argues that the rapid development of AI threatens to overwhelm existing educational and training frameworks.
South Africa's technology sector has faced global disruptions before – the Y2K recovery boom, the dot-com collapse and the 2008 financial crisis affected hiring and investment flows. But Jasper argues that this disruption is different. “When global markets recovered in the past, local demand returned, and software engineers continued to follow a familiar growth path: junior roles, skill accumulation, and long-term career stability,” she said. “AI change does not follow this pattern. Rather than temporarily suppressing demand, it is fundamentally changing the structure of software teams and the nature of work.”
At the heart of the issue is a troubling trend: the disappearance of traditional junior developer tasks. “We're seeing a decline in entry-level development work,” Jasper said. “AI-assisted tools – including GitHub Copilot, Amazon CodeWhisperer, and emerging open-source options – are increasingly capable of generating boilerplate code, automating routine bug fixes, completing basic feature development, and writing documentation and test cases.”
The problem is that these tasks traditionally serve as training grounds for junior developers – proving grounds where foundational skills are built. The 2024 Stack Overflow developer survey found that 76% of developers are now using or planning to use AI tools, with code generation and debugging assistance being the most common applications. For emerging markets like South Africa, where entry-level roles serve as ramps to professional careers, this shift has important implications. “The concern is not that AI will eliminate engineers,” Jasper said. “But future engineers may move forward without developing deep problem-solving and diagnostic skills.”
Not everyone views change with concern. Many industry leaders argue that AI will augment rather than replace developers – Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has consistently positioned AI tools as a productivity enhancer rather than a replacement. From that perspective, developers who adopt AI can become significantly more productive, enabling them to tackle more complex and creative challenges. “Developers who master AI-assisted workflows can become more competitive in global markets, potentially attracting more international investment and remote work opportunities,” Jasper acknowledged.
But labor economists and workforce development experts urge caution. The World Economic Forum's Future of Jobs report 2023 estimates that 44% of workers' skills will be disrupted within five years, warning that significant parts of the workforce risk displacement without active re-skilling. In South Africa, where skills development infrastructure is already strained, Jasper sees particular cause for concern. “The risk of a ‘missing middle’ – a generation of engineers who never develop core competencies – is a real concern.”
From a social development perspective, the AI transition raises questions of fairness. South Africa's technology sector has been a rare bright spot in an economy marked by persistent inequality. If AI-driven efficiency gains accrue primarily to capital and senior talent, while entry-level opportunities shrink, the sector's role as an engine of social mobility may diminish.
Jasper argues that the answer lies not in opposing AI, but in reshaping how the industry develops talent alongside it. She lists several priorities. The first is to redesign entry career pathways: “Instead of eliminating junior roles, visionary organizations should redesign them. Entry-level positions should evolve into 'AI-enabled apprenticeships' that emphasize systems design and architecture thinking, code review and quality assurance, security awareness and governance, and collaboration with AI tools as core competencies.”
The second is to invest in structured mentorship. “In AI-augmented environments, tacit knowledge transfer that occurs through mentorship becomes more important, not less,” she said. The third is to prioritize responsible AI integration. “Adopting AI tools without considering their impact on workforce development is short-sighted. Organizations need to establish clear policies that balance productivity gains with talent development objectives.”
Fourth is to update the national skills framework. “From a government perspective, South Africa’s existing digital skills strategies should be reviewed and updated to reflect the realities of AI-enhanced growth,” Jasper said. “This includes identifying emerging skills needs and ensuring that public training programs address them. Governments should establish mechanisms to track the impact of AI adoption on technology employment, enabling evidence-based policy responses.”
Ultimately, Jasper presents the challenge in the form of alignment. “The AI-driven transformation of software engineering presents both risks and opportunities for South Africa,” he said. “The risk is that efficiency gains come at the expense of long-term capacity development, hollowing out the talent pipeline and undermining the sector's role in economic inclusion. This is an opportunity to define how human expertise and artificial intelligence can work together productively and responsibly.”
She closed with cautious optimism. “AI has made clear where human value is most important. By aligning industry practices, educational approaches and policy frameworks, South Africa can continue to develop a technology workforce that is not only globally competitive but deeply skilled, ethically sound and resilient in the face of constant change. The path forward requires collaboration, foresight and a commitment to ensuring that technological progress delivers broad-based prosperity.”
Dariel Warns AI-Assisted Coding Could Hollow Out South Africa's Junior Developer Pipeline
This piece is based on an article originally featured on Intelligent CIO Africa: "South Africa risks losing a generation of software engineering talent in the AI era" by Bill Tanner.