Gasoline may be poised to rise again, and your groceries could be next.
Just when South African motorists were starting to breathe a sigh of relief after fuel price cuts earlier this year… the universe said, “Not so fast.”
Petrol and diesel prices are expected to rise sharply in April, new data suggests drivers may soon face another painful hike at the pumps
According to BusinessTech, early data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows a massive under-recovery in fuel prices, which would normally indicate a rise in the coming month.
Let us find out what this means.
Why might fuel prices rise again?
Fuel prices in South Africa are influenced by two major factors: the global oil price and the rand/dollar exchange rate.
At present, both are working against motorists. Data from the CEF at the end of the first week of March shows:
- Under-recovery of petrol is around Rs 2.40 per liter
- Under-recovery of diesel is around Rs 4.50 per liter
In simple terms, this means that fuel is currently cheaper based on international costs, and prices may need to rise to catch up.
If current trends continue for the rest of the month, the price cuts introduced at the beginning of the year in South Africa could be completely reversed.
Expected fuel price increase (preliminary estimate)
Based on the current mid-month estimate, motorists could see the following increases in April:
- Petrol 93: ↑ approximately R2.28 per liter
- Petrol 95: ↑ approximately R2.41 per liter
- Diesel 0.05% (bulk): ↑ approx R4.39 per liter
- Diesel 0.005% (bulk): ↑ Approximately R4.50 per liter
- Illuminating Paraffin: ↑ Approximately R6.60 per liter
If these projections hold true, diesel users (including logistics companies and farmers) may feel the greatest impact.
When diesel prices rise, transportation costs often also rise, which can ultimately drive up the price of everyday goods.
This is essentially a domino effect that could see South Africans struggling to make ends meet.
What is the reason for the surge?
According to a BusinessTech report, the biggest reason behind the increase is geopolitical tension in the Middle East.
The conflict escalated when the United States government and Israel launched attacks on Iran on 28 February 2026.
This led to intensified counter-attacks and military action across the region.
Since the Middle East plays a big role in global oil supply, any conflict there tends to send oil markets into turmoil.
As a result, oil prices rose from about $60 a barrel to about $85 earlier this year, investors pulled money out of emerging markets and the rand weakened from R16/$ to around R16.60/$.
Are prices still subject to change?
There is still some uncertainty.
Fuel price realizations may change throughout the month depending on oil price fluctuations and changes in the Rand/Dollar exchange rate.
However, analysts caution that markets do not expect the Middle East conflict to end any time soon.
Reports suggest the White House expects military action to last four to five weeks, with the possibility of it lasting longer.
If the conflict continues to weigh on global markets, fuel prices could remain under pressure for months.
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