Stephen Groots talks to Siya Mbatha of Old Mutual Investment Group about how the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed energy security to the center of South Africa's economic outlook, and why Sasol is being viewed not just as a cyclical commodity stock, but as a strategic pillar of national energy resilience under structurally high oil prices.
Listen to the interview in the audio player below.
The ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a short-term blip, but is fast becoming a structural turning point for global energy markets. For South Africa, the consequences are already filtering into inflation, fiscal policy and investment decisions.
That's the central message of Old Mutual Investment Group's latest update, where analysts are warning that oil prices are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels of $60 a barrel or less any time soon.
Six weeks into the conflict, about 13 million barrels per day of oil production and 2.7 million barrels of refining capacity remain offline. Cumulative supply losses have already exceeded 550 million barrels, squeezing global supplies and keeping prices high.
Speaking to Stephen Groots on The Money Show, Old Mutual investment analyst Siya Mbatha says domestic refining capacity covers less than 20% of fuel demand, with much of the rest imported from the Middle East.
He says the vulnerability for South Africa is clear.
“Even if we had a ceasefire tomorrow, and the Strait of Hormuz was open, and everyone expected everything to go back to normal. That won't happen given the extent of the conflict.”
– Siya Mbatha, Investment Analyst – Old Mutual Investment Group
“Oil is about $100 a barrel right now. Oil could certainly go lower. But do I think it will go back to $60? Not likely.”
– Siya Mbatha, Investment Analyst – Old Mutual Investment Group
“So we will have oil prices rising, probably not as high if we see a resolution to the war.”
– Siya Mbatha, Investment Analyst – Old Mutual Investment Group
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