There are significant business opportunities in Africa. This is driven by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), a growing consumer market, the expansion of regional value chains, and growing investment in infrastructure and digital connectivity.
However, global trade tensions, changing trade corridors, disrupted supply chains, regulatory fragmentation and infrastructure bottlenecks are impacting how goods move across the continent.
The good news is that a range of new solutions are emerging to address these challenges and encourage and facilitate trade and investment on the continent.
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Managing geopolitical change
Geopolitical tensions are increasingly impacting global trade. In Africa, the long-term renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) remains uncertain, despite the February 2026 announcement that the AGOA has been extended to 31 December 2026 (previous date 30 September 2025). Indications are that eligibility for the AGOA in the future, should this or a similar unilateral trade preference scheme be introduced, will depend on close political alignment with the United States of America (US). For businesses with significant US trade exposure, proactive planning and engagement with US and domestic policymakers is essential to maintain competitiveness and manage risk, respectively.
In South Africa, the country's close ties with BRICS+ partners are creating both opportunities and risks. South Africa recently helped open the door for Egypt and Ethiopia to join BRICS, increasing Africa's representation in the bloc. However, the country's relations with BRICS members are not always viewed favorably by the US.
Political change in East Africa is also impacting trade in the region. Tanzania's 2025 elections and Uganda's 2026 elections resulted in the temporary shutdown of telecommunications and digital platforms. Digitization is integral to logistics, insurance and cross-border trade and disruptions disrupt supply chains.
Positive developments include the DRC-Rwanda peace agreement, which could reduce regional tensions and aid vital mineral and forestry supply chains.
To combat geopolitical uncertainty, companies must prepare for political shifts and tariff shocks, monitor regulatory developments in key jurisdictions, and work with local advisors who understand policy shifts and risk exposure in real time.
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Diversifying into trade corridors and new markets
The performance of the corridor remains one of the biggest constraints on African trade. Relocating trade corridors such as east-west routes through the Gulf has lengthened transit times, increasing delays and reliability risks.
The current Middle East conflict is likely to divert major shipping lines around the Cape as global insurers cancel war risk policies, forcing ships to bypass the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, despite potentially increasing logistics costs by up to 30%.
China continues to dominate commodity trade with African countries and its infrastructure projects are also increasingly influencing the direction of the continent's trade corridors.
India has become an increasingly powerful player on the continent, with opportunities in pharma, agro-processing and light manufacturing. The country's independence from major geopolitical blocs also gives it the flexibility to connect with African markets.
Other new players such as the Philippines are also investing in African logistics.
To remain flexible, traders must implement plans to diversify their markets, trading partners and the corridors they use.
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Reducing barriers through private investment in infrastructure
Infrastructure is one of Africa's largest non-tariff trade barriers. Congested ports, unreliable rail networks and inefficient border checkpoints clog supply chains and increase trade costs.
Many African countries are turning to public private partnerships (PPPs) to boost infrastructure development in utilities, transportation and logistics.
With government-funded infrastructure projects slowing down in East Africa due to fiscal pressures, PPPs and strategic disinvestment are growing in popularity.
In South Africa, Transnet's PSP program presents an important opportunity for private sector investment, with investors providing expertise and capital to drive the country to its full potential. Philippines-based International Container Terminal Services' acquisition of the Durban Container Terminal is a sign of progress and offers a blueprint for future Public Sector Partnership (PSP) projects.
PSP will continue to expand in ports, rail and logistics. Businesses specializing in infrastructure, shipping, container operations, private rail and supply chain management will be able to capitalize on the opportunities. The mining and agriculture sectors, which rely heavily on efficient supply chains, will also benefit.
Investors joining the public sector will play a vital role in future-proofing African trade.
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Planning for regulatory uncertainty across borders
The African cross-border trade environment is complex, with manual certificates of origin, inconsistent border procedures and uneven digitalization creating friction. Regulatory agencies often operate within separate frameworks, enforcing inconsistent standards and rejecting each other's certifications. This results in frustration and delays at the borders.
To address this in South Africa, the South African Revenue Service (SARS) is pursuing a multi-year modernization program to improve business efficiency. Key reforms include online licensing, registration and accreditation tools, updated rules of origin procedures, a new online tariff portal and a digital portal for submitting tariff and assessment determinations, as well as enhanced customs adjudication. A fully digital customs framework is expected by 2028. However, the risk is that progress in South Africa could outpace other jurisdictions and widen coordination gaps.
This comes at a time when a harmonized system and coordinated implementation is essential as the AfCFTA gathers momentum. AfCFTA's Phase I protocols on trade in goods, trade in services and dispute settlement are operational, with Phase II and III protocols still being finalized.
Further complicating the issue is that as markets diversify, trade and tariff complexities are likely to increase, as is the expectation of closer scrutiny of re-routed goods, including valuation and origin audit.
Traders are turning to innovative ways to manage regulatory uncertainty, and the ability to obtain tax decisions or pricing and tariff classification before goods reach border will significantly reduce this burden on traders.
Until regulatory coordination improves, businesses should integrate customs planning into their contracts, take advantage of digital tools provided by regulatory authorities and strengthen their internal compliance processes. It would also be beneficial to engage policymakers to emphasize inter-regulatory alignment.
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Breaking down currency convertibility barriers
A persistent barrier to intra-African trade is currency convertibility. Businesses often receive payments in local currencies that cannot be refunded or exchanged. Routing payments through New York in USD involves delays, costs and compliance risks.
To address this, Afreximbank and the African Union are implementing the Pan-African Payments and Settlement System (PAPSS), which connects African central banks, commercial banks and payment providers to enable fast, secure cross-border payments in local currencies.
A new trend of using stablecoin-based settlements backed by reserves is also emerging. This avoids central‑bank‑to‑central‑bank swaps and bypasses USD routing.
Traders should explore digital-asset settlements promptly, use local-currency hedging where available, structure contracts to minimize foreign-currency risk and monitor regional payment-system reforms.
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Dealing with contractual and documentation risks
Traders are facing a new range of non-tariff barriers rooted in contracts, documentation and legal enforceability. Managing payments and political-risk exposure is becoming essential.
The industry is rapidly moving toward digital documentation, but key legal questions remain unresolved, including the enforceability of electronic bills of lading, the validity of digital signatures in different jurisdictions, and the status of electronic charterparty documents.
Incoterms also require careful attention, as misalignment can create significant risks.
Traders are re-thinking payment terms, environmental and political-risk clauses and force majeure provisions.
Increasingly, government-backed export financing programs are used to provide guarantees to banks and exporters to cover payment default and political and economic risks, especially for sales to African markets.
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Understanding Dispute Resolution
There are significant changes in dispute resolution and arbitration. English law regulates most of the world's cross-border trade, including goods, maritime and shipping. Existing frameworks in international arbitration are constantly evolving, including how disputes are managed, how damages are assessed, what constitutes a binding agreement and how contractual variations affect enforceability.
Disputes related to delays will continue to increase, particularly where contracts have not been updated to reflect current risks.
For traders, these legal developments affect how deals should be structured, how risks should be allocated and how disputes should be resolved. Contracts require greater flexibility to accommodate multijurisdictional performance and anticipate regulatory change. Projects involving public sector procurement require clear risk allocation.
conclusion
Traders must look outward to identify new markets and anticipate obstacles before they arise. Success depends on flexibility, close monitoring of regulatory reforms, embracing technology, involving teams of cross-border experts on the ground, and planning rather than reacting. Businesses that can move like water and adapt to current circumstances will be able to overcome the obstacles.
Author: Andrew BuchmanSenior Advisor, Andrew PikeHead of Ports, Rail and Logistics, HB Senecal,, partner, competition practice, Julia ChoatePartner, Tax Practice, Wang'ombe kariukiSenior Advisor, and zolani nyaliPartner, competition practice.