- South Africa expects to export 88,000 tonnes of avocados in 2026.
- Forecasts show increased production from new orchards.
- Shipping disruptions in the Red Sea could threaten exports.
According to Derek Donkin, chief executive of the South African Subtropical Growers Association, South Africa's avocado industry is expected to place 22 million cartons of avocados on international markets in 2026, equivalent to approximately 88,000 tonnes.
Donkin shared forecast with local outlets farmers weekly On March 9th.
If achieved, the estimate would represent a 15.8% increase from last year's 76,000 tonnes and a rebound from the 82,787 tonnes exported in 2024.
Expected growth is largely driven by the maturing of new avocado plantations, which should increase the volume available for production and export.
Official figures show that about 60% of South Africa's annual avocado crop is exported, while the remainder is sold on the domestic market.
Logistical challenges remain
While the outlook to 2026 points to an improvement in exports, the sector still faces major logistical challenges that could impact access to key markets.
In 2025, the industry had to deal with shipping disruptions linked to the Red Sea crisis, a major route for cargo shipments to Europe, South Africa's main export destination.
Renewed attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels in the Red Sea last year posed a security risk, forcing shipping companies to avoid the Suez Canal, Europe's fastest sea route, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
As ships rerouted their way around the Cape of Good Hope, travel times and transportation costs increased, a factor identified by FAO as the main reason for a decline in South Africa's avocado shipments by 2025.
Geopolitical tensions could make logistics more complex in 2026. Since late February, escalating military tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran have heightened security concerns throughout the Middle East.
According to international media reports, Iran has reportedly announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global shipping corridor. At the same time, Houthi forces aligned with Tehran have stepped up threats against maritime traffic in the Red Sea, increasing the risks to key trade routes linking Asia, Europe and Africa.
These developments could impact the export ambitions of South Africa's avocado industry, which is expanding its presence in Asia with markets opening in China, India and Japan from 2023.
According to Donkin, discussions are also expected to begin in 2026 to secure future access to the South Korean market.
Data compiled on the Trade Map platform shows that South Africa exported avocados worth approximately $204 million in 2024. About 76% of revenues came from the European Union, followed by the United Kingdom (13%), Russia (5.3%), and Asia (4%).
In this uncertain context, industry players are urging producers to be cautious in managing the upcoming season.
Zach Bard, director of supply chain strategy at Westfalia, one of the leading companies in the horticulture sector, said avocados have the advantage of staying on the tree for a while, allowing flexibility in harvest timing. This allows exporters and producers to adjust crop and marketing plans if logistics constraints or adverse market conditions arise.
stephanas asosley