Commercial crime is the only major crime category in South Africa other than kidnapping – for which police statistics have been rising year on year. Ordinary South Africans are losing billions of rands. Why is it so difficult to try to figure out the contours of the problem?
This is Part 1 of a four-part Daily Maverick series.
Look at the tables released by the police of South African crime statistics, and the picture is improving cautiously.
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Murder is below. Robbery has reduced. Sexual crimes have reduced. Car theft has reduced. Then your gaze turns to commercial crime – and the line only goes in one direction.
According to analysis by Daily Maverick, commercial crime statistics have almost doubled in just a decade: from 76,744 cases in 2013/14 to 143,600 in 2024/25.
Since 2020/21, the acceleration has been most impressive: 82,890 cases; then 102,057; then 112,592; then 127,651; Then 143,600.
In the most recent quarter for which data is available – the third quarter of 2025/26 – commercial crime increased by 2% over the three months, with Gauteng accounting for more than a third of all cases nationally.
The only major crime category with a comparable upward trajectory is kidnapping.
One might assume that these numbers would generate immediate national conversations and parliamentary debates. In reality, commercial crime hardly registers in the public discourse.
This series is an attempt to understand why commercial crime is increasing, how it is happening and what is being done about it. But as we were…