For South African investors, the impact of the Middle East conflict is not an abstract concept, but is visible in the market through higher oil prices, inflation fears, rand weakness and a sharp shuffling of winners and losers on the JSE. Let me be clear – this is not the time to make dramatic moves in your investment portfolio. However, you may want to understand what reappraisal is doing, why it is happening, and where the obvious traps are.
The first thing to notice is the gap between what asset managers are explicitly saying and what the market has already done. On the asset-manager side, the clearest direct call comes from M&G Investments Southern Africa, whose February 2026 market overview said “Sasol and other energy stocks” had benefited from higher oil prices amid geopolitical tensions. This tells us that Sasol sits firmly in the winning camp if the oil shock continues.
Ninety One is a little more cautious and refers to sectors rather than specific stocks. The idea is that in a Hormuz-style shock, “energy equities and energy-related sovereigns could benefit”, while higher import bills harm energy importers.
For a South African investor, the most obvious local translation is again Sasol first, followed by energy-related commodity exporters such as coal companies if disruption keeps fossil-fuel prices high.
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This is why Exxaro and Thungela have also emerged as potential beneficiaries in this environment. The case is not as clear-cut as that of Sasol, but the logic is the same: if the conflict increases coal demand and prices, energy-related exporters will benefit.
Still, there is an important warning label here. on the face of it,…