January 2026 sees record retail sales. This is on an actual seasonally adjusted basis. Sales rose 4.2% year-on-year in January, following a 3.7% gain in 2025 and a 2.5% rise in 2024.
Household consumption is the largest category of economic activity. This means that economic growth in 2026 is off to a good start.
analytical adjustment
Since December retail sales are much higher than January sales, Statistics South Africa Adjusts data. This is a seasonal adjustment. Concurrently, it offsets the effects of normal seasonal variation. The effects of other influences are then more clearly recognized. One such impact could be the introduction of “two pot” retirement planning.
From 1 September 2024, South African retirement funds are divided into a “savings” (one-third) and “retirement” (two-thirds) pot. It is noteworthy that many people reached out to him Savings bank. This gave a boost to retail sales in 2025.
Other adjustments made also remove the effects of inflation. Retail inflation is not the same as consumer inflation. This is because they measure different baskets.
Furthermore, economists make another adjustment. They take actual seasonally adjusted data and then index the data to a starting point. It is generally started at an index value of 100. This means that the percentage increase is easier to achieve. As a result, the January 2026 value is 10.4% higher than the January 2024 level. It is now easy to see that retail sales for January 2026 are a record.
January 2026 monthly changes
Furthermore, the actual seasonally adjusted January monthly change was an increase of 0.9%. This was followed by a decline of 0.5% in December. Pharmaceutical retailers had an excellent performance in January. Excessive rain in January can be the reason for this.
were on the other end of the scale clothing retailers. Rain was again a factor. Due to the weather, customers remained indoors. Clothing retailers' monthly decline in January was 0.5%.
Surprisingly, general dealers, who have the largest share in the retail market, had a monthly growth of only 0.1%. On a year-earlier basis, employment rose 1.7% in January, up from a 4.0% jump in December.
