Agribusiness Chamber of South Africa (AGBIZ) He said that he remains hopeful that food inflation Despite challenges, there will be no rapid growth in 2026 foot and mouth disease and other animal disease concerns.
Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist of Egbiz, He said South Africa is battling foot-and-mouth disease in the cattle industry and African swine fever in the pig industry.
“Concerns about the path of consumer food price inflation into 2026 are understandably and rightly on the minds of many. We remain optimistic that meat prices will not rise as sharply as some feared, which will be welcome news for families. Slaughter rates in the cattle and pig industries remain fairly strong, although farmers are under financial stress due to the spread of diseases,” he said.
Sihlobo said data from the South African Pig Producers Organization (SAPPO) shows pig slaughter in South Africa reached 331,453 in December 2025, 11% more than in November 2025 and 2.9% more than in December 2024.
“Annual cumulative slaughter figures during December 2025 reached 3,849,684, down 0.4% compared to the same period last year. Cattle slaughter figures also show a slight decrease in 2025, when the FMD disease began to intensify, with cattle slaughter decreasing by about 5% from 2024,” he said.
Sihlobo said this is an important context to keep in mind as it shows that the meat supply is not disrupted.
“The year's activity depends on our ongoing efforts to prevent the spread of these diseases and vaccination efforts against FMD. That said, we did see meat prices rise last year, but this was mainly due to panic buying driven by retailers' announcements rather than product shortages. Consumer demand was the main driver of meat prices. This remains a reality to an extent,” he said.
Sihlobo said another fact to keep in mind is that during FMD outbreaks, the country usually temporarily closes some export markets, leading to some modest increase in domestic meat supply and lower consumer prices. In 2025, we see the opposite due to the above factors. Another issue in 2025 was high poultry prices.
“It was a temporary reason Poultry import ban from Brazil after avian influenza Outbreak there. South Africa still imports about 20% of its annual poultry consumption, and Brazil is one of the largest suppliers. So, it caused some consternation. However, imports resumed soon after brazil The spread of avian influenza was brought under control,” he said.
Sihlobo said meat prices remain at risk, but we believe much depends on the ongoing vaccination efforts against foot-and-mouth disease. “We also believe that we may see good levels of slaughter in the coming months, although I must again emphasize that cattle and pig farmers are under enormous financial pressure. Limits on animal movements, an important measure to control the spread of the disease, pose a risk to the availability of animals on farms. Nevertheless, it is a necessary measure.”
Sihlobo said that in the broader context of consumer food price inflation, Agbiz expects South Africa's consumer food price inflation to moderate in 2026.
“Low prices of cereals, fruits and vegetables, driven by adequate domestic and global supplies, and softening of vegetable oil prices, are among the factors that will underpin a moderation in price inflation. South Africa had an abundant harvest, with the 2024-25 summer cereals and oilseeds crop estimated at 20.08 million tonnes (up 30% on the year). The new season also looks encouraging. We have been receiving favorable rainfall since the beginning of the season,” he said. Said.
Sihlobo said so South Africa's 2025–26 summer grain and oilseed production It is estimated to be 19.82 million tonnes.
“Although this is 3% less than the 2024-25 season, it is still an encouraging estimate. With regard to vegetables and fruits, we have seen serious flooding in parts of Limpopo and Mpumalanga over the past few weeks. But fortunately this came after the completion of the potato season. Thus, there has been no significant damage to vegetables. Given the flooding seen in the fields, the primary concern in the citrus sectors remains, especially the quality of the upcoming season, “he said.
Sihlobo said that in short, Agbiz expects South Africa consumer food price inflation Slowing down in 2026.
“I must say that consumer food price inflation in January 2026 was 4.4%, unchanged from December 2025. These were probably high levels, as we may see some moderation going forward. Finally, an important clarification should be emphasized: low food inflation does not necessarily translate into lower prices. Inflation is the rate of increase in prices. So, while this pace may be moderate, prices of some food items may remain modest. “Certainly, 2026 remains a difficult period, but there are enough positive factors to convince us that South Africa's food price inflation path may soften in 2026,” he said.
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