The citrus industry is particularly vulnerable, with between R23 billion and R29 billion of exports to the EU and UK at stake. Photo: Staff Writer.
By: Lindy Botha of Farmers Weekly
South African agriculture generated R341 million in daily foreign exchange in 2025, surpassing the combined daily earnings of gold and platinum mining. But Agrisa's latest business report shows that this success is fragile and increasingly dependent on external factors and policy support.
AgriSA Agriculture Annual Business Report 2025Released last week, it includes an analysis of South Africa's agricultural trade between 2021 and 2025. This shows that although performance has been strong, it is exposed to biosecurity risks, infrastructure constraints and distortions in the global trading system. Without urgent reforms, this growth cannot be sustained.
Johan Kotze, CEO of AgriSA, said in the report that the farming community must consolidate its profits while facing obstacles that limit its full potential.
“The question is no longer whether strategic investment is necessary, but whether it will be mobilized in time to achieve long-term competitiveness,” he said.
Record exports and trade surplus
South Africa's agriculture sector delivered record performance in 2025, significantly strengthening the country's trade balance:
- Total agricultural exports reached R266,2 billion, up 8,8% from 2024
- Imports rose to R141.6 billion with a modest 1.6% increase year-on-year (y/y)
- The sector achieved a trade surplus of R124.6 billion, an annual growth of 16.4% and the highest agricultural trade balance on record.
Horticulture alone generated a net surplus of R128,1 billion, which was more than the total agricultural trade surplus. Driven primarily by palm oil and wheat imports, R9? The total was partially reduced by an agricultural science deficit of $1 billion.
Citrus exports contributed an estimated R11,8 billion to the agricultural surplus, accounting for about 67% of the total expansion, making it the most significant single commodity contribution to agricultural trade balance growth during the period under review.
However, the report notes that reliance on citrus as a primary source of surplus production creates single-commodity risks at the national level. With 35% to 40% of citrus exports destined for the EU, any increase in sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) restrictions or competitive pressure could put R10 billion to R20 billion in annual export revenues at risk.
Livestock achieved a surplus of R5,6 billion due to increased exports of fish and lamb. Lamb exports expanded rapidly, increasing by 677% since 2021 to R1,16 billion, reflecting the combined effect of improved market access, favorable exchange rates and strong product reputation.
heavy dependence on export markets
Amid considerable market volatility last year, the report said market diversification has helped the agriculture sector. Losses in the US due to tariffs were offset by growth in Africa, the EU and BRICS+, indicating that South Africa is quietly moving away from traditional markets, particularly the US.
South Africa's agricultural exports in 2025 were concentrated in 20 priority markets in Africa, Europe, Asia and the Americas, reflecting regional depth and increasing global reach.
Russia recorded the strongest growth among key destinations, as growing demand from non-EU markets created new access opportunities for South African products. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia continued to expand, driven primarily by continued demand for halal lamb.
Markets also under pressure amid domestic economic slowdown and ongoing SPS frictions, including China.
Regional trade within Africa continues to strengthen, with exports to the continent growing to R94,4 billion, or about 34% of South Africa's total agricultural exports. This underlines the growing importance of African markets for staple and regional crops.
The report said the expansion of African trade corridors and new export platforms provide meaningful diversification, but they are still not large enough to compensate for major disruptions in key markets.
major chokepoint
Although South Africa has made progress in diversifying markets, the report shows that increasing unpredictability in market access has left the agricultural sector in a precarious position.
“As access conditions to traditional export markets such as the EU and the US become more volatile and compliance costs increase, exporters face greater difficulty in planning long-term investments, managing risk and maintaining established market positions. This (…) is increasing the importance of sustained trade diplomacy and regulatory engagement.”
The EU's strong environmental, pesticide, traceability and sustainability requirements for agricultural imports are of particular concern. While these standards support consumer and environmental objectives, they increase compliance costs and increase the risk of market exclusion for smaller exporters and those with fewer resources.
The citrus industry is particularly vulnerable, with between R23 billion and R29 billion of exports to the EU and UK at stake. Reductions in maximum residue levels, false coding insect interception limits, and citrus blackspot controversy could restrict access to the world's highest-value fresh fruit market.
Phytosanitary risks aside, the report points to another challenge that could hamper export growth: politically influenced trade. Global trade is becoming more fragmented along political and strategic lines, making it more complex to balance relationships while protecting traditional markets.
“Agricultural exporters face the risk of being affected by political disruptions, pressure to align with specific factions, and disputes unrelated to commercial performance.
“At the same time, fragmentation creates opportunities for South Africa to establish itself as a reliable supplier,” the report said.
Outlook shows modest growth
According to AgriSA projections, the agricultural trade surplus by 2028 could range from about R85 billion in an unfavorable scenario to R180 billion in a favorable scenario. This variation is largely driven by five key variables beyond the direct control of farmers.
In an optimistic scenario, export earnings could reach R165-180 billion. This will require a combination of favorable developments, including prevention of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), improved access to EU markets, rollback of US tariffs, stronger intra-African trade, improved port performance and favorable La Niña weather conditions.
However, the report notes that the likelihood of all these factors aligning is low.
The base-case scenario, considered the most likely, estimates export earnings of R135–150 billion. These include partial containment of FMD, manageable EU market tensions, stable growth in African markets and incremental improvements in logistics, despite moderate El Nino pressures.
In the downside scenario, export earnings could fall to R85-105 billion. The result will be increased EU sanctions, continued disease outbreaks, loss of US trade advantages, deteriorating logistics, and severe drought conditions.
Some of these risks have already materialized, making this outcome more likely, the report said.
The upside scenarios require both sustained commercial investment and effective government implementation.
Therefore, AgriSA argues for a defensive strategy to protect the R124,6 billion surplus through phytosanitary compliance, FMD prevention and port investments before pursuing the R20 billion to R50 billion in potential upside from African trade and new markets.
“The survival of the R44,9 bn citrus franchise, the R94,4 bn African trade corridor, and the R1,16 bn lamb platform are not guaranteed and must be defended,” it said.
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