Since the end of World War II, the question was whether whites would be quick enough to offer to share power and thus avoid the fate of becoming an impotent political minority.
One very astute observer felt that the white people would delay the fundamental selection too much. He was C. Lewis Leipoldt, a renowned African poet and public intellectual, who published a poem about The Fool and The Master envisioning a chess game between whites and blacks with political control of South Africa as the prize.
“much admired fool
Looked intelligent and considered what he saw.
“I guess,” she said, “if he tries
White can still draw!”
Master smiled and nodded
“You've left it too late”.
“There is no doubt about it,” he said.
“Moving and mating are black.”
Leipoldt wrote the poem in 1947 and died the same year.
In South Africa, serious thinking about the future of the country began in the early 1970s. Dr. Anton Rupert was one of several South African business leaders who were members of the Club of Rome. Rapid population growth, which was concerned about rapidly depleting natural resources, led the club to commission a study that later appeared under the title. limits to development.
It predicts “overshoot and collapse” by 2070 if the world continues with a “business as usual” approach and the rapidly growing world population is allowed to destroy the economy and environment. The predictions would be confirmed four decades later by a team of Australian researchers
With the assistance of Rupert and some other South African business leaders attending the Club of Rome meeting, the Futures Research Unit was established in Stellenbosch in 1974. For many years its Director, Professor Philip Spies, played a leading role in preparing papers and thinking about the future in innovative ways.
By the mid-1980s the resolution of the racial issue and the looming economic crisis could no longer be avoided. At this point Anglo American's Clem Sunter began to make a major contribution to the intellectual debate about the country's future. He developed the High Road and Low Road options as stark choices that South Africa faced. He argued strongly that the High Road, with a democratic constitution and growth-oriented economic policy, could lead South Africa to a prosperous future and stable democracy.
I am writing Leadership SA In the March 2008 issue, Sunter returned to the topic of South Africa's future, co-authored with Chantelle Ilbery. The article argued that South Africa made the right choice by taking the high road in the early 1990s.
The author even notes that South Africa “joined the 'Premier League' of nations” in 1994. It concludes: “South Africa has remained there as a result of 14 years of stable government and disciplined macro-economic policies, all of which took place in the context of a global 'long boom' scenario.'
In the end the article reflects a sense of disappointment. South Africa's standing in international leagues rating competitiveness and business friendliness was slipping. The health and education systems were poor and a dramatic reduction in crime was needed.
The essay drew the disappointing conclusion that South Africa had ceased to be a member of the Premier League and was sinking into the reserve league. It was also possible that South Africa would fall back into “2”.Ra Partition”, which was generally marked by internal disharmony and ultimately overt conflict.
Remember this was all written a year before Jacob Zuma became South African President.
A new book by Frans Cronje, CEO of the Institute of Race Relations and a popular scenario planner, takes the debate over the future to a new level. his book is called A time traveler's guide to South Africa in 2030 and is published by Tafelberg.
It is the best guide to the trends that are likely to play out between today and 2030. It also depicts four different scenarios that could play out over the next thirteen years.
The book can be seen as two parts. The first part tells of the tremendous successes of the ANC government in building houses, providing water and electricity in its first ten to fifteen years in power. Under Trevor Manuel, and under the leadership of the Reserve Bank and the Treasury, the state's financial affairs were in as good a state as one could wish for.
The second part deals with the policy failures of the ANC government. Firstly, there was very rapid change in the civil service and the deployment of cadre led to losses. It took 55 years (from 1910 to 1965) for the civil service under white rule to reflect the 55-45 demographic ratio of the white community. The NP government retained the rare skills of English speakers, especially in technical departments and state corporations. Under the ANC government the civil service was transformed within ten and twelve years in line with demographic population proportions.
The ANC government inherited the unemployment problem, but it made it worse. Dr. Wim de Villiers, an astute business leader, identified unemployment as the country's major problem before becoming Minister of Administration and Economic Coordination in 1990. Half a million jobs were created in the industrial sector in the 1960s but this dropped to 28,000 in the 1980s.sunday times4 November 1990). This was largely the result of relying too heavily on gold production and failing to develop competitive exports to other regions.
Then the ANC government came to power and passed the most labour-friendly legislation for developing countries – with unexpected consequences. Cronje points out that under NP rule until the early 1980s the economy rarely lost more than one million working days from industrial action. In 2007 the number of days lost increased to a staggering 13 million. Five million working days were lost in three of the five years of Jacob Zuma's first term.
The policy of using English as the medium of instruction, then at a very early stage, led to a crisis in black education, both because of the decline of discipline and the excessive power of the unions. As well as the failure of black schools and universities, the government has implemented a demographic dictatorship by implementing the 80-8-8-2 principle with cadre deployment in the civil service and other public institutions where possible.
Earlier in the process a senior lawyer in the Prosecution Service described the effect on morale thus: “The department must provide a service, and the best service is considered the criteria (for promotion). What happens now is that promotion depends not on performance but on race. The result is that whites are very discouraged to perform because there is nothing in it for them – no incentive. Conversely, there is no incentive for people of color to perform because promotion. Not dependent on performance.”
in his introduction Clem Sunter provides an admirable summary of the four main scenarios outlined in Cronje's book. First arose the “rightists” (or “Reggesindez” in Afrikaans). It undermines the rights and freedoms of all South Africans in an effort to promote development and living standards and it succeeds in fostering a sense of solidarity and purpose among South Africans, as have the rulers of Singapore and China. To me this sounds like a recipe that can only work in a racially homogeneous society.
The second scenario is the rise of leftist dictatorships, which follow the classic socialist policies that attracted so many autocrats in recent history and caused so much suffering. This scenario is unlikely for the simple reason that South Africa lacks the prerequisite for such a regime, namely a brutal and disciplined army. At a recent meeting commemorating the Dakar conference thirty years ago, retired ANC politician Aziz Pahad commented that our military is “too weak to deal with a mild Arab Spring”.
The third scenario envisages the disintegration of South Africa as a state under a weak and inflexible government and stagnant economy. Those who own property and have stable incomes will live in distressed camps, while the poor will become more destitute and desperate. This scenario is unlikely to play out in the Western Cape but could be true in many other provinces.
Finally comes a scenario called “Return of the Rainbow”. People no longer wait for the government to “provide” homes, jobs, and services, and begin to take command of their own destiny. The anti-racist commentators who currently flourish will become increasingly discredited.
There is a growing realization that South Africans understood this as early as late 1986, when a large group of people living in the region then known as the Witwatersrand preferred a coalition government in which no single group dominated. The support of blacks was up to 75%. The idea that South Africa could develop and remain stable as a liberal democracy was a dream that only a few academics could believe. In my view, a government of national unity is the only system that can get us out of the mess created by the Zuma government.
Frans Cronje's book is the best description yet of the dilemma in which our country finds itself. Hopefully this sparks thousands of conversations about our future.
Herman Giliomy's Historian: An Autobiography (Tafelberg) has recently appeared