South African motorists could face fuel crisis in June 2026

South African motorists may face yet another problem petrol price rise in juneAfter months of steady increases, fuel prices are finally headed for a steep recovery.

Latest data from Central Energy Fund (CEF) The fuel outlook points to a marked improvement, with petrol recovery turning positive for the first time in three months and diesel users expected to get substantial relief.

However, the government's partial withdrawal of temporary fuel levy relief means petrol drivers are likely to feel the pinch at the pumps next week too.

Petrol moves into positive territory

In early May, petrol prices saw an under-recovery of around 85 cents per liter as motorists continued to absorb the effects of global oil volatility and the weak rand.

But the latest CEF figures now show petrol in over-recovery territory:

• Petrol 93: 26 cents more recovery per liter
• Petrol 95: 21 cents more recovery per liter
• Diesel 0.05% (bulk): over recovery of R5.29 per liter
• Diesel 0.005% (bulk): over recovery of R4.60 per liter
• Illuminating Paraffin: More recovery of R5.60 per liter

While this indicates a big improvement in fuel recoveries, petrol motorists are unlikely to benefit from lower prices in June.

Fuel levy reversal cancels out benefits

This is largely due to National Treasury's decision to phase out the temporary fuel levy relief introduced in April to cushion the blow of rising fuel prices.

From June, the government will add R1.50 per liter back to petrol prices, reversing half of the R3.00 per liter relief given earlier this year.

Diesel users will also receive a partial levy return of R1.97 per liter after previously receiving relief of R3.93.

The government has confirmed that the remaining relief is expected to fully run out in July unless further intervention is announced.

As a result, economists expect petrol prices to rise by more than R1.20 per liter in June despite the improving recovery picture.

Diesel drivers may finally get relief

Diesel motorists and transportation-dependent industries will benefit the most.

The current over-recovery is large enough to comfortably absorb the partial return of the diesel levy, with wholesale diesel prices still expected to fall to between R2.60 and R3.30 per liter in June.

Some analysts have speculated that the Treasury could accelerate the re-introduction of the full diesel levy, but even in that scenario diesel users could still get price cuts at the pumps.

Why was Outlook improved?

The recent stability comes after months of intense fuel increases linked to high oil prices and geopolitical instability in the Middle East, particularly tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.

The relatively strong rand – mostly trading below R17 against the US dollar – combined with stable oil prices has helped calm volatility in recent weeks.

However, economists warn that the outlook remains fragile. Fresh geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, or a renewed surge in oil above $120 a barrel could quickly reverse gains.

The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources is expected to announce the official June fuel price adjustment at the end of the month, with the new prices taking effect in early June.

latest forecast

Below, latest estimates for June 2026 As obtained by The South African website From the Central Energy Fund (CEF):

If market conditions remain the same for the remainder of the month – an unpredictable scenario with rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuations and the oil price always changing – petrol 93 octane is expected to decrease by 26 cents per liter for motorists and 21 cents for 95 users.

Diesel motorists, meanwhile, will see a reduction of between 460 and 529 cents per litre.

Ultimately, the price of Illuminating Paraffin is expected to fall to 560 cents.

The price of fuel in South Africa is influenced by two main factors:

1. International price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices

2. The Rand/Dollar exchange rate used to purchase these products

oil price

The price of Brent crude oil at the time of publication is $96.20 A barrel.

exchange rate

The rand/dollar exchange rate at the time of publication is R16.33/$.

The final overall price change for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed at the end of the month and the new prices will be effective from midnight Tuesday, June 2.

Current May 2026 petrol and diesel prices (inland and coastal):