• To meet its climate promises, South Africa aims to pump up Not more than 420 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent Up in the air by 2030 – and according to our data it looks like the country is on the right track.
  • In April Germany agreed to cede South Africa Loan of approximately R3.8 billion (approximately €200 million) To help the country move away from fossil fuels like oil and coal for energy production.
  • Our Bhekisisa data team dived into thousands of data points to put together a three-part series of stories on what climate change could mean for the country.
  • Today in Part 1, we explain what South Africa is doing to help ward off global warming – and the damage caused by changing weather patterns.

With a R3.8 billion boost to help South Africa move away from fossil fuels like oil and coal for energy generation, how well is the country doing in delivering on its promise to help keep the world's temperatures at manageable levels? Bhekisisa takes a look at the data.

To meet its climate promises, South Africa aims to pump up Not more than 420 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent Up in the air by 2030 – and according to our data it looks like the country is on the right track.

hence a debt of approx. R3.8 billion (about €200 million) One such boon was announced in April from Germany.

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is part of the funding Just Energy Transition Partnership Which aims to help South Africa switch to renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power – something that is especially important as coal-fired power stations and cars running on petrol and diesel are responsible for more than 80% of South Africa's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Burning fossil fuels like oil and coal produces gases like carbon dioxide and methane. They form a layer in the Earth's atmosphere blocks the sun's heat Almost like a greenhouse keeps heat inside – that's the word green house gases Comes from. If too many of these gases accumulate – as has happened over the past century – the temperature of the air near the Earth's surface rises. Life on Earth may expand beyond what it can comfortably handle .

Over many years, this warming causes changes in how much rain places receive, what minimum and maximum daytime temperatures look like, and how long dry spells last. In other words, the climate of an area begins to change.

Experts predict that climate change will lead to extreme weather events such as floods, storms, droughts and heat waves. more intense and unpredictable That can make it harder for people to stay well or get health care if they get sick, which can affect the way people earn a living, and it can make it more difficult to grow food.

A major survey before the 2024 general elections has revealed this 11% voters Climate change – and by implication what politicians will do about it – was one of the top three things they would think about when deciding who to vote for. And whose parties are 13 out of 15? Bhekisisa's election manifesto was analyzed at the time Promised to do something on issues related to climate change.

with extreme heat in parts of the Western Cape and heavy rain and storm In the first three months of the year across northern and eastern parts of South Africa, will people again take into account the impacts of changing weather patterns – and how will leaders deal with its consequences – when they decide how to vote in the upcoming local government elections on 4th November ?

We looked at thousands of data points linked to climate change indicators and produced a three-part series of stories explaining what South Africa is doing to help keep global warming manageable and what the consequences of not planning for extreme weather could be.

In our first story, we look at four questions about where the country stands on GHG emissions. Here's what we found out.

How much carbon dioxide does SA emit?

In 2024, South Africa's GHG emissions amount to 1% of the world's total emissions. Four other countries – China, the United States (US), India and Russia – together are responsible for about half of the world's emissions.

Although South Africa's contribution is only 1% of the world's total, it is still a huge amount – in fact, the equivalent of about 570 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, International data shows . (Because carbon dioxide is not the only type of greenhouse gas, scientists use the term “Carbon dioxide equivalent” (CO 2 -eq) As a standard reporting unit in calculations.)

That's enough carbon dioxide to fill 116 million people. olympic size swimming pool We calculated – this figure is close to twice the number of people living in South Africa. (We used standard conditions of 0°C (273.15 K) and 1 atm pressure in our calculations. It is important Specify temperature and pressure When calculating how much space a gas will take up, because when the pressure increases – in other words, when the gas is compressed – it volume decreases . Similarly, when a gas gets heated, quantity increases .)

Twenty-two other countries, along with the world's maritime and air traffic, join South Africa in emitting as much carbon dioxide as China. This means that 29 players (including ships and aircraft) are responsible for 83% of the world's total carbon emissions.

How much does each person add?

The picture looks different when the size of a country's population is considered. For example, per capita, Australia's carbon emissions are about 2.5 times that of South Africa, even though each country adds only 1% to the world total.

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Similarly, when ranked according to total emissions, China takes the top spot and India is the third largest contributor in our list of 11 countries. But when ranked on the basis of per capita figures, China is at sixth place and India slips to second place. (The reason the total contribution of countries like China and India is so high is because of the size of their populations.)

Looking at the numbers in this way tells us something about the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions. For example, the share of someone living in the US is about six times that of someone living in India and about three times that of someone living in Brazil.

Although emissions have been declining in many rich countries over the past few years, per capita emissions levels in some countries are still high. especially in countries like America where president donald trump is Defying evidence-based climate policies . If developing countries, which often have larger populations, view these as acceptable benchmarks of carbon dioxide output as they reform their economies, it could “Devastating for global efforts to curb emissions” The UN trade and development body says.

Where do South Africa's emissions come from?

In December 2024, South Africa, as part of united nations climate change treaty presented it first tracking report To show how well plans to slow climate change have progressed since 2020.

The report shows that more than 80% of the country's net greenhouse gas emissions of 435 million tonnes CO 2 -eq (Mt CO 2 -eq) come from the energy sector – the industry that produces the electricity and fuel people use to run homes, cars, factories and businesses. This is not surprising since the economy relies heavily on burning fossil fuels, which produces large amounts of carbon dioxide. In fact, emissions from the energy sector are about 3.5 times the combined output of factories, farming and waste handling.

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As signatories, it is important to recognize how much each sector adds when tracking progress on climate action. paris agreement This has to be reported on, as it helps to see where the biggest or fastest gains could be made – which is why Germany's funding boost to help South Africa move away from coal is big news.

All countries that have signed the Paris Agreement are committed to playing their part in curbing global average temperatures. An increase of more than 2 degrees Celsius compared to 150 years ago And will do its best to keep the increase at 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

To achieve this, all countries set targets for their annual total greenhouse gas emissions, based on their specific development situations. These goals are called the goals of the country Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and is updated every five years to become more and more ambitious To achieve global temperature targets.