South Africa's state-owned freight company Transnet is asking lenders to relax financial tests on loans as it prepares to borrow more than $200 million in a planned refinancing this year, it told Semaphore.

The move would offer the government to replace some commercial safeguards – “debt covenants” in corporate finance parlance – increasing fiscal risks and raising new questions about whether a lack of company liquidity could force state support.

Transnet, which exports the bulk of Africa's most industrialized economy and runs major ports and pipelines, is struggling with a debt pile of about $2.6 billion. This is another wildcard national budget Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana announced this late last month already stressed After the US and Israel launched attacks against Iran, which caused markets to tighten and fuel prices to rise.

The company, which is the backbone of mining exports in the resource-rich country thanks to its vast rail, port and pipeline network, said it is revising the rules on loans, and how these loans are priced, confirming Semaphore's reporting based on a source with knowledge of the matter.

It argued that lenders should focus on the government's sovereign guarantee rather than the company's finances, which are strained due to aging rail infrastructure, shortages and thefts of rolling stock.

As part of efforts to keep interest payments in check, which swallow up about half of its core earnings or EBITDA, Transnet told Semaphore it was preparing to borrow more than $230 million this year.

Songzo Zibi, chair of the South African parliament's public finance committee, told Semaphore that Transnet must transport more freight to stabilize its finances, but operational problems are preventing it. A Dispute with a Chinese locomotive supplier Many trains have been left idle, and Zibi said the company “could be stuck in one place for a long time.”

“Transnet has a liquidity problem,” he said. “It will require some form of capital investment to meet its obligations.”

His comments shed light on Godongwana. Since 2023, government guarantees for Transnet have more than quadrupled with expectations that the company will turn its fortunes around.

Transnet has been a problem for South Africa's economy for more than a decade, which was hollowed out by a frenzy of corruption during President Jacob Zuma's administration. It relies on a government guarantee of about $3.4 billion after borrowing $2.6 billion to buy hundreds of locomotives, which have since lain idle. Standoff continues with Chinese supplier CRRC-e-loco. A series of locomotive contracts awarded by Transnet to CRRC were later ruled illegal and overpriced.

The standoff has put South Africa in an uncomfortable position as CRRC is owned by the Chinese government and Beijing is a major BRICS partner. South Africa first Senior political officials sent to Beijing In an attempt to resolve the issue.

Transnet's operational failures have shifted freight movement from rail to roads, increasing logistics costs in the economy and making the truck-heavy system unsuitable for bulk exports. That breakdown has opened up space for private players. DP World of DubaiBut increased congestion and public expenditure led to reduced export competitiveness.

If Transnet's lenders accept the Treasury guarantee in place of rigorous performance tests, they potentially ensure certainty for themselves when passing the bill to the public.

The company's self-help measures remain unproven, and the projections outlining its recovery look like rough estimates, but the state is being asked to outline the same operational changes. This is a textbook moral hazard.

If Godongwana wants to stabilize logistics without mortgaging the budget, it should insist on paperwork that provides verifiable self-help measures – not hope.

Transnet has argued that sovereign guarantees and covenant relief are necessary to stabilize operations while it works through deep constraints that limit its financial performance.

“The credit enhancement of the government guarantee allows Transnet flexibility to improve the overall conditions of the affected facilities,” it said in an emailed response to Semaphore questions.

Some analysts argue that Transnet's rail volumes – the company's main revenue engine – are showing early signs of recovery, having increased by more than 4% to more than 80 million tonnes in the six months to the end of September. Management is forecasting a full-year uplift to 170 million tonnes in 2022 from its three-decade low of 149 million tonnes. Transnet's historical peak was about 230 million tonnes in 2017.

Observers have also blamed the government for Transnet's operational failures, arguing that the company is stuck in structural constraints that management cannot solve alone.

The most obvious thing is that the government is slow Rail network opened to private operators. Allowing third-party operators to run trains on Transnet's network, paying annuity-style access and granting operating licenses that can increase volumes.

  • India's railways and power utilities are undergoing aggressive reforms get heavy state supportThe government has doubled capital expenditure.

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