South Africa may be presented with a strategic opening to strengthen its position in global shipping lanes as disruption around the Strait of Hormuz sends shock waves through international trade, but industry experts warn the country is still not fully equipped to reap the full benefits.
That was the key message from Jacob van Rensburg, head of research and development at the Southern African Association of Freight Forwarders, who said the conflict in the Middle East is not just a logistics disruption, but a broader fuel-driven supply shock that is affecting the cost of doing business around the world.
Speaking in a television interview on the current state of logistics, Van Rensburg said consumers have already begun to feel the pain, as fuel is in many ways one of the largest cost components in transporting goods.
“If we just consider the fact that diesel or fuel cost in general is the most significant cost driver in logistics, in moving goods, in cargo movement,” he said, road freight operators see fuel accounting for about 35% to 40% of the total cost of moving goods. Ocean freight fuel costs account for about 30%, while air freight is also at extreme risk.
That mobility means the impact of the crisis extends far beyond delayed cargo and congested routes. Increased fuel prices are impacting transportation networks and increasing costs across supply chains from shipping and aviation to the delivery of goods to end consumers.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important trade chokepoints, especially for energy flows. Van Rensburg said about 20% to 25% of global oil trade and liquefied natural gas volumes move through the waterway, underscoring the scale of secondary impacts now rippling through the global economy.
Disruption to air cargo and passenger travel is also being felt acutely. Van Rensburg described the Middle East as a major global aviation hub and said flight operations are quite poor. Emirates, one of the region's most important carriers, has managed to restore about 70% of capacity, he said, while Qatar and other airlines are operating at lower levels.
This matters to business because air cargo, especially high-value and time-sensitive shipments, relies heavily on those hubs. Reduced airline capacity drives up freight rates, lengthens transit times and increases uncertainty for businesses that rely on fast-moving international supply chains.
Obstacles in maritime trade are becoming more and more visible. Van Rensburg said about 275,000 containers, measured in 20-foot equivalent units, are currently stuck in the Strait of Hormuz. For shipping lines forced to seek alternatives, the route around the Cape of Good Hope adds approximately 10 to 14 days to travel time.
For global carriers that operate on strictly managed vessel schedules, this is a major disruption. Long sailings tie up fleet capacity, complicate port detours and create delays throughout the supply network. The result is a system-wide stress that affects importers, exporters, freight operators and ultimately consumers.
South Africa sits directly on one of the most important alternative routes: the Cape Sea Route. Theoretically, this should put the country in a stronger position as ships move away from the disputed waterways. However, in practice, Van Rensburg said South Africa has not yet translated the increased traffic into meaningful growth in port activity or transshipment business.
According to data cited in the interview, total containers handled are expected to increase by 3.9% between 2024 and 2025, while vessel calls are expected to increase by only 2%. At the same time, the country is seeing only limited benefits in the form of bunkering, crew changes and other ancillary maritime services rather than a sustained increase in cargo being unloaded and reshipped through local ports.
That distinction is important. More ship traffic alone will not necessarily generate the macroeconomic growth associated with becoming a true logistics and transshipment hub. Van Rensburg said South Africa's transshipment share has fallen from about 23% to 25% of total containers handled in earlier years to just 13% to 14% currently.
In other words, more ships may be passing through South Africa, but relatively few are using its ports as major redistribution points for cargo. This limits a country's ability to influence shipping schedules, capture additional logistics revenue, and create broader value in the supply chain.
The missed opportunity comes as South Africa struggles with its port bottlenecks, including congestion and weather-related disruptions. Although Van Rensburg said there have been “significant improvements” in recent years and the decline in container handling performance has been halted, he suggested the country still has work to do before it can fully capitalize on structural changes in global trade routes.
He pointed to port performance as the key variable. In his view, the most important measurement is volume capacity – the ability to handle the cargo moving through the port. Efficiency is the next important factor, which refers to how fast goods can go from point A to point B. Productivity, meanwhile, depends on the relationship between additional inputs such as cranes and berths and the resulting increase in throughput.
Van Rensburg also cited the World Bank and S&P Global's Container Port Performance Index, which ranked South African ports among the worst globally. While he questioned aspects of the methodology and argued that it did not fully capture the broader operating system underpinning port performance, he acknowledged that improvements in throughput and speed were necessary.
The strategic case for reform is becoming more urgent. South Africa's location at the southern tip of the continent gives it a natural advantage as a transit point for shipping between major markets. But geography alone is not enough. To emerge as a more important logistics hub, the country will have to prove that it can process large volumes of cargo faster and more reliably.
If this happens, the redirection caused by geopolitical instability could develop from a temporary traffic increase into a more sustainable benefit for the economy. However, without those reforms, South Africa risks seeing ships moving away from its shores while competitors take over the higher-value logistics activity.
At the moment, the crisis in the Middle East is highlighting the fragility of global trade and the extent to which energy, shipping and aviation networks are interconnected. It is also focusing on whether South Africa can turn a favorable geographical position into real business advantage.
As Van Rensburg said, the goal should not simply be to see more ships passing through the Cape, but to ensure that the country benefits meaningfully from the structural changes taking place in global trade.