South African motorists are still likely to face significant increases in fuel prices May 2026However, there has been a sudden recovery in global oil markets after the ceasefire between the two countries. United States of America And iran Could soften the expected hike.
Earlier estimates had shown that the fuel price adjustment in May could exceed the sharp increase implemented in April, mainly due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a weak rand.
However, global oil prices have started to ease after reports of a two-week ceasefire agreement helped calm energy markets.
Temporary cut in fuel levy softens April growth
Fuel prices increased rapidly in the beginning of April.
The impact on motorists was partially reduced after a temporary proposal was implemented by the National Treasury (South Africa) Reduction in general fuel duty by R3.00 per litre..
As a result, petrol prices increased R3.06 per literWhile diesel increased between R7.37 and R7.51 per literDepends on grade.
Sharp growth was initially forecast for May
Current projections suggest fuel prices may still rise sharply in May, although the outlook has improved slightly in the last 48 hours:
- Petrol 93: increase about R3.52 per liter
- Petrol 95: increase about R3.92 per liter
- Diesel (0.05% Sulphur): increase about Rs 11.50 per liter
- Diesel (0.005% Sulphur): increase about R11.55 per liter
- Illuminating Paraffin: increase about R9.12 per liter
If these projections are realized, they will apply Significant pressure on household budgets and businesses Across the country.
Ceasefire brings relief to oil markets
Global oil markets showed signs of relief after news emerged that the United States and Iran had agreed to a temporary ceasefire after several weeks of tension.
The development has eased fears of disruption to global oil supply and shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil transportation corridors.
As soon as the tension subsided, Brent crude oil prices retreated from above $100 per barrelHelping to stabilize global energy markets.
The rand also showed signs of a modest recovery after recent volatility linked to geopolitical uncertainty.
Diesel prices remain a matter of concern
Despite improved outlook, diesel prices still expected to rise biggest increaseRaising concerns for industries highly dependent on the fuel.
like sector Goods transportation, agriculture and manufacturing Are heavily dependent on diesel, which means higher fuel costs can increase transportation expenses and ultimately lead to losses High food and consumer prices.
Final prices still uncertain
Economists warn that although the ceasefire may help stabilize oil markets in the short term, the ultimate outcome remains uncertain.
Fuel price projections remain highly sensitive Fluctuations in global oil prices and fluctuations in the randBoth of these can change rapidly.
Market analysts say these developments will be closely watched in the coming weeks ahead of an announcement from the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (South Africa). Official fuel price adjustment for May.
latest forecast
Below, latest Estimates received by South Africans website From the Central Energy Fund (CEF):
| fuel | price change |
| petrol 93 | increase of 352 cents |
| petrol 95 | increase of 392 cents |
| diesel 0.05% | 1 increase of 150 cents |
| diesel 0.005% | 1 increase of 155 cents |
| illuminated paraffin | increase of 912 cents |
If market conditions remain the same for the remainder of the month – an unpredictable scenario with rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuations and the oil price always changing – petrol 93 octane is expected to rise to 352 cents per liter for motorists and 392 cents for 95 users.
Meanwhile, diesel motorists will see an increase of between 1 150 and 1 155 cents per litre.
Finally, the price of Illuminating Paraffin is expected to increase by 912 cents.
The price of fuel in South Africa is influenced by two main factors:
1. International price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices
2. The Rand/Dollar exchange rate used to purchase these products
oil price
The price of Brent crude oil at the time of publication is $98.58 A barrel.
exchange rate
The rand/dollar exchange rate at the time of publication is R16.43/$.
The final overall price change for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed at the end of the month and the new prices will be effective from midnight Tuesday, May 5.
April 2026 Petrol and Diesel Prices (Inland and Coastal):
| inland | april |
| petrol 93 | R23.25 |
| petrol 95 | R23.36 |
| diesel 0.05% | R25.90 |
| diesel 0.005% | R26.11 |
| illuminated paraffin | R24.21 |
| coastal | april |
| petrol 93 | R22.46 |
| petrol 95 | R22.53 |
| diesel 0.05% | R25.07 |
| diesel 0.005% | R25.35 |
| illuminated paraffin | R23.19 |