There is bad news of interest rate cut in South Africa next week

South African The latest inflation data may be encouraging, but interest rate relief is unlikely just yet.

And this news will not be of much relief to South Africans who are currently in debt.

Latest figures from statistics sa Show released on Wednesday Consumer inflation is falling To 3% in FebruaryBelow 3.5% in January – square landing On the revised target of the central bank.

However, economists have warned that a rate cut will take place next Thursday SARB Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) interaction is increasing not likely.

Clouds of global tension are looming

The main concern is the ongoing and escalating conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, which has sent global energy markets into shock.

Oil prices have risen more than 40% since late February, with Brent crude climbing above $100 a barrel.

At the same time, the rand has weakened against the dollar – a combination that typically drives inflation in South Africa.

SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago It has previously been said that local inflation is particularly sensitive to currency weakness, even more so than fluctuations in oil prices.

Fuel price shock looms

While South African motorists in March Increase in fuel prices seenThe outlook for April is quite bad.

preliminary estimate Point to the increase of:

• R4.74 per liter for petrol
• R7.83 per liter for diesel

Rates likely to remain on hold

Despite inflation hitting target, markets are pricing in no change Up to the repo rate, which is currently 6.75%.

MPC meeting is going to be held Thursday, March 26Where they are expected to adopt a cautious approach while assessing the following:

• Impact of rising oil prices
• currency fluctuations
• broader geopolitical environment

What does this mean for consumers

For now, borrowers hoping for lower interest rates may have to wait a little longer.

Economists expect inflation to remain average 3.2% in the first quarterbefore climbing closer to 4% in the second quarter As fuel price pressure builds.

In short, while inflation has calmed down for the time being, global risks mean the SARB is likely hold the line on rates – At least for the time being.

Second interest rate announcement for 2026

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had last cut the repo rate by 25 basis points in its November 2025 meeting.

The rates were kept unchanged in the January 2026 meeting.

Next Thursday's announcement will mark the committee's second interest rate decision of the year.

Who are the MPCs of SARB?

The Monetary Policy Committee of the South African Reserve Bank meets every other month to announce changes – if any – to the country's repo and key lending rates.

Meetings are scheduled to take place in January, March, May, July, September and November – and always on Thursdays at 15:00.

Currently, the committee consists of Six The people hold the position of Governor of the SARB, with Lesetja Kganyago – and also cast the deciding vote if necessary.

SARB MPC meeting dates in 2026

Monthly Bond Repayment Table

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