This week's Africa finance outlook is being shaped by rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, resilient capital markets performance in South Africa, early signs of currency stabilization in parts of the continent, renewed M&A movement in banking and easing inflation pressures in East Africa.
Together, the signs point to a continent that is weathering external shocks, while areas of greater stability begin to emerge.
Middle East crisis raises energy risks for Africa
The joint US-Israeli operation that killed Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday has heightened geopolitical tensions. sending Brent crude up nearly 10 percent. Above $82 per barrel. The move followed attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that carries about a fifth of global oil flows. Analysts have warned that if the conflict escalates, prices could exceed $100.
why it matters: High oil prices create asymmetric risks across Africa. Importers such as Egypt face renewed external and fiscal pressures, while exporters such as Nigeria may see reduced revenue gains due to domestic fuel inflation. This episode reinforces Africa's continued vulnerability to external energy shocks and could complicate the region's deflation trajectory in 2026.
JSE breaks profit record on strong market activity
johannesburg stock exchange Full-year net profit was recorded at R1.07 billion ($57.8 million), up 16.7 percent from R918 million ($49.6 million) in 2024 – the first time earnings have crossed the one billion-rand mark. Headline EPS rose 17.7 percent to 1,329 cents, while return on equity improved to 22.0 percent.
why it matters: This milestone underlines investors' renewed confidence in South African financial assets and highlights the resilience of exchange operators' earnings despite global volatility. It also signals a strengthening of capital markets depth at a time when African exchanges are competing for global flows.
Kwacha, Naira lead Africa's FX recovery
Zambia's Kwacha and Nigeria's Naira emerged as Africa's top performing currencies The kwacha appreciated by 17.7 per cent to 18.79 per dollar in the first two months of 2026, while the naira strengthened by 6.95 per cent to about N1,353.4 per dollar. Overall, eight of the 17 African currencies tracked have gained year-on-year.
why it matters: This gain suggests temporary macro stabilization in parts of the continent following aggressive reforms and tight monetary policy in 2024-2025. However, the uneven performance across currencies suggests that the continent's FX recovery remains fragile and highly sensitive to external shocks – particularly oil and global risk sentiment.
Bidvest resumes bank sale after access deal fails
South Africa's Bidvest has restarted the sale of Bidvest Bank after its proposed disposal of Nigeria's Access Bank failed to close before the regulatory long-stop date. Restart comes with interim results looking stable Income growth and strong cash generation.
why it matters: The renewed sale process puts cross-border banking consolidation in focus and highlights the persistent regulatory complexity in African financial M&A. For Nigerian banks attempting pan-African expansion, the episode is a reminder that execution risk remains high despite strategic ambition.
Kenya's inflation hits six-month low
Kenya's annual inflation fell to 4.3 percent in February from 4.4 percent in January, a six-month low. According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, monthly consumer prices rose only 0.2 percent.
why it matters: The easing of inflation bolsters the case for continued easing by Kenya's Central Bank and signals improving price stability in East Africa's largest economy. If sustained, this trend could support credit growth, consumer demand and local bond market performance in 2026.
chart of the week
